EV Demand Set To Surge Eightfold Across India and SEA By 2030

Macquarie is forecasting a dramatic surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand in India and Southeast Asian markets, projecting sales to jump eightfold by 2030 off a low base, with India poised to emerge as the region’s largest BEV market.

The analysts estimate BEV penetration rates will rise from less than 3% currently to 16-30% by 2030 across most markets studied, driven by narrowing price premiums versus internal combustion engine vehicles, improving charging infrastructure, and supportive government policies.

India is expected to lead the pack, with BEV sales forecast to reach 1 million units annually by 2030, accounting for over 60% of the combined India and ASEAN-5 BEV market, the analysts said.

Macquarie sees India’s auto component ecosystem and addition of BEV cell manufacturing capacity as key drivers that will enable cost optimization and fuel growth. The country’s production-linked incentive schemes for domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries, totaling $5.2 billion, are viewed as critical policy initiatives to develop India as a BEV manufacturing hub.

The report highlights that despite the rosy outlook, however, internal combustion engine vehicles will remain relevant across the region, accounting for 40-90% of industry volumes by 2030 in most markets studied.

Range anxiety and charging infrastructure limitations are cited as key risks that could temper BEV adoption rates. The analysis also points to an intensifying battleground between established Japanese automakers and Chinese EV manufacturers looking to expand their presence in Southeast Asian markets.