Ola Electric’s Market Share Plummets from 49% to 33% in Two Months

Ola Electric, the dominant player in India’s electric two-wheeler market, has experienced a sharp decline in its market position, with its share dropping from 49% to 33% in just two months, according to official government data.

This 16-percentage-point fall represents a 32.65% decrease in the company’s market share since the end of June.

The Bengaluru-headquartered firm publicly listed earlier this month.

Brokerage firm Jefferies:

Ola’s E2W market share has subsequently slipped to 39% in July and further down to 33% in August (month-to-date). TVS, conversely, is regaining with market share at 19% at Aug MTD vs 15% in 1QFY25 (FY24 was 19%). Bajaj’s market share has also risen from 11%/12% in FY24/1QFY25 to 18% in Aug MTD. Hero is still lagging among incumbents at 5% market share in Aug (1QFY25: 3%) while Honda is yet to launch its first EV in India.

Share of EVs in 2W sales rose from just 0.4% in FY21 to 5.4% by 1QCY23 led by rising subsidies and new launches. However, the government has reduced E2W incentives twice since Jun’23, resulting in share of E2Ws remaining in 4-7% range for most of the last 24 months (Aug’24: 6.5%) despite introduction of lower-priced vehicles by OEMs. The FAME-2 incentive scheme expired in Mar’24, while the interim EMPS scheme is valid for six months until Sep. The contours of the next phase of FAME would be crucial for the pace of EV adoption. We expect share of EVs in 2Ws to rise gradually to 7%/10%/13% in FY25/FY26/FY27 (YTD-FY25: 5.6%).