Kotak modeled 20,000 quick commerce order baskets and found that more than half are priced below INR 500, a fat left tail driven by the fact that urban household spending puts a hard cap on how much quick commerce can expand. Only 52% of the consumption basket is addressable by quick commerce at all, the bank concluded.
The model’s central finding is that basket value is more sensitive to supplier pricing — specifically discounts to MRP — than to the number of items per order. Hence, the path to better unit economics runs through harder supplier negotiations rather than nudging customers to buy more.